Published on: March 30, 2026, 11:24h. 

Updated on: March 30, 2026, 11:24h.

• Kalshi outperforms traditional sportsbooks on March Madness odds
• Other prediction markets are trailing behind
• Analyst believes prediction markets have minimal impact on sportsbook profits

Kalshi has proven to be superior in the pricing it offers clients on NCAA Tournament games, surpassing conventional sportsbooks as a result.

A recent analysis by Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender indicates that although DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) initially had the best odds for the “first four” games of the men’s tournament, Kalshi quickly took over as the pricing leader throughout the first two rounds, the Sweet 16, and the Elite 8. Citizens’ pricing review concentrates on NCAA Tournament money line and over/under bets.

“DraftKings offered the top customer pricing for the first four matchups, but Kalshi dominated the pricing for subsequent rounds. Kalshi’s vig stood at 4.42% and 4.55% for the Elite 8 and Sweet 16 when combining moneyline and over/under, with DraftKings following closely and then Fanatics,” Bender notes.

Presently, Kalshi’s tournament pricing averages out to 4.12%, compared to DraftKings at 4.34%, FanDuel at 4.45%, and Fanatics at 4.48%. The analyst highlights that the prediction markets run by DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, and Robinhood are not keeping pace with March Madness pricing.

Rapid Pricing Advancements for Kalshi

Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which impose a vig—typically requiring a $110 bet to win $100 at -110 odds—Kalshi employs transaction fees. Professional traders and savvy bettors often avoid these fees on Kalshi, as the platform aims to entice these market players to contribute liquidity and sustain narrow spreads. However, retail bettors do bear the cost.

“Kalshi applies a transaction fee on every contract processed on its platform, promoting liquidity in the order book, rather than discouraging it,” adds Bender. “Our findings show this fee averaged around $1.58 per 100 contracts during the Elite 8 and $1.65 for the Sweet 16, contributing to better pricing.”

Kalshi’s pricing enhancements during the NCAA Tournament come after it had lagged behind its sportsbook competitors in NFL pricing throughout the 2025 season. Throughout March Madness, Kalshi seems to be leveraging live betting and trading to its advantage.

“We monitored the volume of trades on Kalshi, where in-game betting made up 74% of the volume in the Elite 8, 76% in the Sweet 16, and 73% overall for the tournament. In contrast, traditional sportsbooks likely hover around 55% to 60% for the tournament,” remarks Bender.

Minimal Threat of Prediction Markets to Sportsbooks

While Kalshi has made significant strides in pricing during this major sports event, Bender emphasizes that prediction markets hold a “limited influence” on the financial health of traditional sportsbooks. This outlook primarily stems from the idea that most retail bettors are not as price-sensitive compared to sharp players.

“In states where legal sports betting is permitted, the primary selling point of better pricing is currently not a reality. Hence, less price-sensitive players enjoy broader betting options on standard apps, while price-sensitive bettors do not benefit from superior pricing in Kalshi’s most liquid markets,” the analyst concludes.

Recent studies from various research firms reveal that in states where sports betting is legal, bettors overwhelmingly prefer platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel over prediction markets.