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Published on: April 10, 2026, at 12:33 PM.
Updated on: April 10, 2026, at 12:33 PM.
- US Representative Torres requests a CFTC investigation into Polymarket’s trading activities concerning the US-Iran ceasefire.
- Recently established accounts on Polymarket earned $550K in profits tied to the ceasefire agreement.
- Prediction markets are under scrutiny for potential insider trading practices.
Democratic members of Congress are pressing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), responsible for overseeing prediction markets, to investigate potential insider trading associated with the US conflict with Iran.
As reported by Casino.org earlier this week, a notable amount of suspicious trading occurred on Polymarket right before President Trump declared a two-week ceasefire.
Dune, a cryptocurrency analytics company, found that more than 50 new accounts were opened on Polymarket just hours prior to the announcement of the 14-day truce. These accounts placed significant bets on the ceasefire, collectively earning around $550,000.
US Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY), a member of the House Financial Services Committee and various subcommittees focused on digital assets and financial technology, is urging the CFTC to investigate these timely wagers to see if any illicit information was mishandled for personal gain.
Congressman Seeks Accountability
Under the Trump administration, the CFTC has taken steps to affirm the legality of prediction markets, allowing them to offer trading contracts on both sports and issues surrounding global and domestic politics. Previously, regulations prohibited event contracts concerning “terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or any activities deemed illegal under law,” but current CFTC Chair Michael Selig, appointed by Trump, has adopted a more lenient stance toward prediction markets.
Selig’s CFTC has indicated that the responsibility for monitoring insider activity in prediction markets primarily falls on the platforms themselves, but Torres is asking the CFTC to compel Polymarket to reveal information regarding the dubious accounts.
Recent investigations show that several newly created accounts on Polymarket made highly targeted, well-timed predictions about a US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, despite little public indication that such an agreement was forthcoming. This trading activity coincided with a phase when public statements from the President suggested increased tensions rather than any thawing of relations, raising doubts about the legitimacy of these trades being based solely on publicly available information,” Torres communicated to Selig.
Torres requested that the CFTC Chair initiate a thorough examination of the implicated trading behaviors, collect and scrutinize account-related data, and ensure that Congress and the public are kept apprised of any results.
Demanding Transparency
Torres suggests that the exceptionally timed trades regarding the ceasefire might merely stem from “advanced speculation,” but emphasizes that with the rapid growth and acceptance of prediction markets—a trend evidenced by their increasing references in mainstream news—there is a pressing need for transparency within these emerging markets.
“If no action is taken, it could jeopardize the trust in both new financial technologies and the overall integrity of US markets,” Torres warned.
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