Published on: June 10, 2026, 06:32h.
Updated on: June 10, 2026, 06:35h.
- Osasuna refutes claims of hedging relegation through Kalshi, citing insurance instead
- Semafor uncovers Spanish club’s alleged betting on its own relegation outcomes
- Kalshi trade mirrored an insurance policy with €1.2 million investment and €6 million payout
The Spanish football club, Club Atlético Osasuna, has raised skepticism toward assertions that it mitigated the risk of relegation from La Liga by wagering against its own performance on the prediction platform Kalshi.
In a statement released on Monday, Osasuna—who narrowly avoided relegation by finishing just above the drop zone—clarified that while it did take steps to hedge against potential relegation, it was through a conventional insurance provider rather than through betting.
For a club of Osasuna’s scale, relegation could incur a staggering loss of €40–€60 million due to decreased broadcasting rights, sponsorship deals, and other commercial revenues.
Clarification on Kalshi
This announcement followed a wave of reports surrounding Osasuna’s supposed activities in prediction markets, with Semafor breaking the story last week.
The outlet alleged that a Spanish football club, without directly naming Osasuna, had engaged in trades worth “millions of dollars” regarding its own relegation.
Quantitative trading firm Susquehanna supposedly profited over $1 million when the team avoided relegation by goal differential, despite a 1-0 defeat in their concluding match, according to Semafor.
While Semafor did not specify Osasuna, it was the only La Liga team in a situation that fit the article’s context, leading to assumptions by other media outlets.
If the allegations are confirmed, they could provoke serious questions about the integrity of allowing clubs to gain financially from bets on their own athletic performance.
In its Monday statement, Osasuna disclosed that it acquired a €1.2 million insurance policy from the British firm Howden Group, ensuring a €6 million payout in the event of relegation.
To support their position, the club released documents validating the Howden policy and communications confirming that La Liga was informed about this arrangement.
“Osasuna’s engagement in this matter was strictly limited to obtaining coverage from Howden to mitigate the financial repercussions of possible relegation,” the statement emphasized. “The club intends to take any necessary actions to protect its interests and reputation.”
Conflicting Narratives
Interestingly, the statement omitted any reference to Kalshi or prediction market trades. This discrepancy seems challenging to reconcile with the Semafor article, which stated that Osasuna sought assistance from Game Point Capital to facilitate the trade via Greenlight Commodities.
Semafor described Greenlight as a “broker for entities looking to engage in prediction markets,” and also consulted Game Point CEO Will Hall, who mentioned, “This was an opportunity to see how prediction markets would react to this scenario, representing a significant test case.”
The latest twist in the tale comes from gaming journalist Daniel O’Boyle, who verified on the X platform that a Kalshi trade mirroring the one described in the Semafor account indeed existed—an investment of €1.2 million on Osasuna’s relegation, promising a €6 million payout if successful.
The numbers align precisely with those provided by Osasuna regarding their insurance policy for relegation.