Published on: June 22, 2026, at 11:27 AM.
Updated on: June 22, 2026, at 11:27 AM.
- Analyst identifies significant potential for DraftKings in the prediction market.
- Projected event contracts could yield up to $1.3 billion in revenue for the company by 2030, dependent on market share.
- A 30% market share might translate into an additional $14 billion in enterprise value.
Recent data shows that engagement on DraftKings Predictions — the company’s prediction market platform — is ramping up, promising long-term rewards for investors as DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) ventures deeper into the event contracts sector.
In a recent analysis, Citizens Equity Research’s Jordan Bender estimates that should DraftKings attain 20% of the prediction market landscape by 2030, it could realize $907 million in revenue from yes/no derivatives. If DraftKings captures a 30% share, the revenue potential could soar to $1.3 billion, according to the report. The implications for enterprise value are profound.
Utilizing Kalshi’s implied revenue multiple, a 20% market share could equate to roughly $10 billion in enterprise value for DraftKings, and around $14 billion at a 30% share — comparable to the firm’s current valuation. This indicates that the market isn’t fully recognizing the potential here,” notes Bender.
Kalshi, recognized as the largest regulated prediction market in the United States, was recently valued at $22 billion and is trending toward $2 billion in yearly revenue.
The Vast Opportunity for DraftKings in Prediction Markets
Launched last December, DraftKings Predictions is currently experiencing an uptick in activity; however, it has yet to become a major revenue generator because much of the trading volume is directed through CME and Crypto.com, not through the Railbird Exchange that DraftKings acquired to bolster its prediction market endeavors.
Consequently, DraftKings is mostly missing out on profits from market-making, reporting a mere $2 million in gross revenue last month despite increased activity on DraftKings Predictions, according to Bender. Expectations indicate that the financial landscape of DraftKings Predictions will evolve favorably for the company in the coming months.
“By the start of the NFL season, we anticipate that DraftKings will channel a substantial volume of trading through its own exchange instead of CME and Crypto.com, while concurrently enhancing market-making capabilities on both its platform and third-party venues,” states Bender.
Looking ahead, the take rate for DraftKings Predictions could grow from the current 2% to between 5.5% and 6%, excluding potential gains from market-making efforts, which Bender estimates could yield as much as $200 million in EBITDA by 2030.
DraftKings Predictions as a Catalyst for Customer Growth
Thanks to the World Cup, DraftKings Predictions is proving to be a crucial driver for new customer acquisition.
“DraftKings app downloads have surged 249% month-to-date as the company begins to acquire customers through a sports offering now available throughout the U.S.,” Bender comments. “We project the company aims to onboard 2 million to 3 million new customers in 2026, based on current acquisition costs and marketing strategies.”
While DraftKings management has consistently indicated that investments in the prediction market may not significantly impact earnings this year, Bender forecasts that “contribution profit” over the next seven months could contribute an additional $28 million to the company’s guidance for 2026.