Published on: June 25, 2026, at 04:46h.

Updated on: June 25, 2026, at 04:46h.

• Weekly trading volume in prediction markets surpassed $14.4 billion for the first time last week
• This marks the third consecutive week of record-breaking volume
• While the World Cup boosts numbers, non-sport events are also contributing significantly

Prediction markets are consistently breaking weekly volume records. Last week, the turnover on yes/no exchanges skyrocketed to $14.4 billion, comfortably exceeding the $10 billion threshold established the week before.

As pointed out by a16z crypto—Andreesen Horowitz’s branch focused on cryptocurrency and prediction markets—last week’s prediction market activity represented not only the first instance of exceeding $14 billion but also indicated a significant rise compared to the earlier weekly averages of $5 billion to $6 billion observed this year. Moreover, the current figures reflect a 10x increase compared to the same period last year.

Total open interest across various prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, surged to $1.6 billion last week, marking a trio of record weeks for this statistic.

“In contrast to volume, open interest can only increase when new positions open at a rate quicker than existing ones get resolved. The growth observed indicates a higher level of investment in these markets,” states a16z.

Last fall, open interest hovered around $200 million weekly, signifying an eightfold increase since then.

Non-Sports Event Contracts Driving Growth

There are certain undeniable facts in the realm of prediction markets. Primarily, sports derivatives serve as pivotal volume enhancers. Estimates reveal that these event contracts constituted roughly 80% of the volume on Kalshi from its launch until April.

Additionally, the World Cup is significantly influencing the rising volume in prediction markets—a sentiment echoed by industry analysts and operators alike. This trend is poised to remain robust as long as the U.S. and other prominent teams advance in the tournament. Nevertheless, data shows that non-sports contracts are also making substantial contributions.

“The volume for non-sport categories—spanning politics, economics, global affairs, and ongoing events—reached $3.6 billion last week across Kalshi and Polymarket combined. This figure alone exceeds the total volume of prediction markets (including sports) just a year ago,” states a16z. “In July 2025, non-sport weekly volume was approximately $200 million. Since then, it has surged nearly 18 times, with a pronounced acceleration this month.”

Kalshi Maintains Dominance

Another key fact in prediction markets is that Kalshi remains the foremost platform in terms of volume. Data referenced by a16z reveals that both Kalshi and Polymarket are outpacing their competitors in market share, although Rothera is beginning to gain traction.

The venture capital firm monitors volume across nine prediction platforms—HIP-4, Kalshi, Limitless, Myriad, Opinion, Polymarket, Predictforfun, Probable, and Rothera. Some of these services are not accessible in the U.S.

a16z is a noted investor in Kalshi. The firm was also an early backer of Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), the cryptocurrency exchange now collaborating with Kalshi in its prediction market venture.