An unverified participant on the cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket is making a substantial wager that Vladimir Putin will no longer hold the presidency of Russia by December 31, 2026.
Despite prevailing odds, NBC News initially reported that a trader using the username ZnotluvuiSamez has purchased over 3.65 million shares in the Polymarket contract titled “Will Putin be out as president of Russia by December 31, 2026?”
ZnotluvuiSamez made an acquisition of 3,658,041 “Yes” shares at an average cost of 13.4 cents each.
This investment amounts to approximately $490,177, and with the current trading price of shares at 11.5 cents, he’s at a loss of nearly $68,000 should he choose to sell now.
However, if Putin is indeed ousted from the presidency by 2027, the value of those shares could exceed $3.65 million.
“Should there be an announcement regarding Vladimir Putin’s resignation or removal before the deadline of this market, it will instantly settle to ‘Yes,’ regardless of when the departure takes effect. If he is detained, effectively removed from office, or otherwise permanently incapacitated within this market’s duration, it will qualify as a ‘Yes’ outcome,” explains Polymarket’s market regulations.
Polymarket specifies that validation sources for resolution will include official announcements from Vladimir Putin, the Russian government, or a consensus from reliable news reports.
Account of Unknown Origin
Given the decentralized, blockchain-based nature of Polymarket, identifying the individual behind the ZnotluvuiSamez account is challenging. The account likely supports Ukraine, as its profile picture features the colors of the Ukrainian flag.
Additionally, ZnotluvuiSamez has engaged in numerous other markets focusing on Russia and Ukraine.
Casino.org can verify that the account controls over 532K “Yes” shares in the market “Will Ukraine reclaim Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?” It also holds 70,905 “Yes” shares in “Will Ukraine finalize a peace agreement with Russia by August 31?”
The ZnotluvuiSamez account became active on Polymarket in April 2026. Since that time, the account reflects a total trading profit/loss of -$85,266, primarily stemming from the unsettled market regarding Putin’s presidency.
Concerns Over Insider Trading
The significant wagers on the potential end of Putin’s presidency have sparked curiosity, leading to speculations that this account may be connected to someone with inside knowledge.
In April, the US Department of Justice filed charges against a military master sergeant involved in efforts to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, who allegedly profited by $200,000 through timely trades on Polymarket regarding Maduro’s political status.
Polymarket acknowledged its concerns, flagging these trades as questionable and notifying the DOJ of the activity.