Published on: May 4, 2026, 11:42 AM.
Updated on: May 4, 2026, 11:42 AM.
- Record-setting Derby Week total handle achieved.
- However, Derby Day handle saw a decline.
- Same trend observed for the Run for the Rose race.
On Monday, shares of Churchill Downs (NASDAQ: CHDN) dropped after an inconsistent report on Kentucky Derby wagering. Golden Tempo triumphed in the initial round of the Triple Crown, marking a historic win as the first horse trained by a female to achieve this milestone.
Despite some historical insights, the company’s shares declined by 7.17% during midday trading due to a lackluster handle report. While the overall Derby Week figures were strong, Derby Day and the Kentucky Derby faced challenges.
“All-sources handle for Derby Week reached a record $487 million, an increase of $13 million or 3% from the previous record set in 2025,” stated Churchill Downs. “Wagering on Derby Day was $340 million, in contrast to last year’s record of $349 million. For the Kentucky Derby race, all-sources wagering totaled $225 million, down from last year’s $234 million.”
Handle on TwinSpires, the official betting platform for the Kentucky Derby, amounted to $129 million during Derby Week, reflecting an increase of $7 million or 6% year-over-year. While TwinSpires’ Derby Day handle rose by 1%, its race handle remained unchanged compared to 2025.
The decline in stocks on Monday could suggest that investors had higher expectations for Derby Day and the race, especially since these events have consistently set new records for handle over the years.
Positive Developments for Churchill Downs Stock
Focusing solely on Derby Day handle might be shortsighted as Churchill Downs reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for Derby Week 2026 at an all-time high.
The gaming company indicated that Derby Week’s adjusted EBITDA soared by $15 million to $18 million year-over-year. Traditionally, Derby Week has contributed 25% to 30% of the operator’s annual EBITDA; however, estimates suggest this figure may have decreased to around 15% as Churchill Downs diversifies with historical horse racing venues and regional casinos.
Another encouraging sign was the robust ticket demand for the Derby. This is critical as ticket sales contribute significantly to overall Derby Week revenue and are typically priced high.
“We expect ticket pricing and demand remained strong, as suggested during the company’s earnings call on April 23,” mentions Citizens Equity Research analyst Jordan Bender. “Median ticket prices, excluding general admission and suites, averaged around ~$2.1k, with premium tickets being the highest revenue generators for the day; tickets account for ~60% of Derby week revenue.”
Promising Outlook
Investors should consider that the 2027 Derby will not introduce any new growth initiatives, but the Victory Run Project is scheduled for completion by Derby Week 2028. Churchill Downs is investing between $280 million and $300 million to upgrade outdated box seats and enhance dining experiences. In the short term, historical trends may favor Churchill Downs stock.
“Historically, median stock performance in the 60 days following the Kentucky Derby is +4% (2011–2025) compared to +1% for the Russell 3000 during the same timeframe,” adds Bender.