The lineup for the World Cup’s 16 teams will be finalized after three matches on Friday. However, it’s evident that this prestigious soccer tournament is significantly boosting betting activity for sportsbook operators.
According to data from New York, Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella has raised his projected World Cup betting handle over the last two weeks to between $3.4 billion and $3.8 billion, up from the previous estimate of $3.3 billion. This forecast pertains to 61 out of the 104 matches in the tournament. It’s clear that the World Cup is producing substantial betting volumes for sportsbooks, though the hold— which indicates the profits sportsbooks retain from wagers— is less definitive.
“We find that hold results have been inconsistent, limiting potential benefits from the surging World Cup handle. For example, New York’s hold for the week ending 6/21 was 9.2%, while the week concluding on 6/28 saw a healthier 12.1%, leading to an overall two-week hold of 10.6%,” explains Pizzella.
Using New York as a reference point is notable, as it holds the title of the largest competitive sports betting market in the United States. Estimates suggest that Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE: FLUT) FanDuel and DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) account for 70% of the market share in the fourth-largest state.
World Cup Supporting Betting Stock Performance
While Pizzella highlights the unclear hold situation, the World Cup is nonetheless boosting sports betting stocks. Over the past month, Flutter’s and DraftKings’ shares increased by 4.63% and 1.85%, respectively.
Despite some uncertain factors, these gains could further improve in the near future, especially if betting volume increases during the knockout stage as expected. Sportsbook operators might also see advantages if U.S. teams advance, potentially enhancing betting demand,” Pizzella notes.
Investors should also monitor Brazil, England, and Mexico, regarded as “secondary” teams among U.S. soccer supporters. Mexico, despite never advancing beyond the round of 16, has a significant following due to a large Mexican American population. Conversely, sports betting stocks could suffer if prominent teams fail to make deep runs.
Regarding Flutter, successful campaigns by Brazil and England could positively influence the stock since the company is a major sportsbook operator throughout Europe and Latin America.
World Cup Boosting Prediction Market Engagement
The previously mentioned World Cup betting handle is even more remarkable given that the tournament is driving substantial engagement in prediction markets.
For instance, two of Kalshi’s peak volume weeks occurred during the World Cup group stage. Similarly, the tournament is fostering increased turnover on DraftKings Predictions and Robinhood.