Published on: May 12, 2026, 03:59h.
Updated on: May 12, 2026, 03:59h.
- House Democrats request subpoena authority over military-related prediction market trades
- Lawmakers highlight suspicious betting on Iran strikes and ceasefire
- Senators call for CFTC action against “death” and war-related contracts
House Democrats are seeking subpoena authority to explore potential insider trading on prediction markets linked to US military actions.
A letter spearheaded by Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and endorsed by six additional House Democrats was dispatched to House Oversight Chair James Comer, advocating for heightened examination of these markets.
Gaining subpoena power would provide Congress the legal means to compel prediction-market operators, brokers, banks, and possibly government entities to produce records, enabling investigators to ascertain if any individuals leveraged private military information for trading gains.
Accusation Against Special Ops Soldier
This initiative follows the recent case of US special forces soldier Gannon Van Dyke, who pleaded not guilty to charges that include the unlawful misuse of confidential government data for personal benefit, theft of non-public government information, and commodities fraud.
Prosecutors claim he utilized insights from classified operations to generate over $400,000 by trading on specific military actions in Venezuela and the ousting of President Nicolás Maduro.
A CNN investigation conducted in March, cited in the letter, revealed that one user on Polymarket profited nearly $1 million by accurately predicting covert military actions by the US and Israel against Iran, boasting an impressive 93% success rate. This trader reportedly made his bets just hours prior to the execution of operations in October 2024, February 2026, and June 2025.
Additionally, a network of 38 separate accounts, which were funded in the week leading up to the attacks, collectively netted more than $2 million by betting on the strikes that occurred on February 28. Furthermore, at least 50 newly established accounts placed coordinated wagers regarding a US-Iran ceasefire on April 7, with several accounts appearing shortly before the official announcement.
Concerns Over ‘Death’ Contracts
This situation has intensified scrutiny from lawmakers. Earlier in February, a coalition of Senate Democrats urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), responsible for regulating prediction markets, to take a strict stance against contracts associated with war, terrorism, assassinations, and other “death” outcomes, asserting that such markets are already illegal under federal law.
The senators requested that CFTC Chairman Michael Selig “clearly emphasize that the CFTC will categorically forbid any contract that hinges on or closely relates to a person’s death.”
“The tangible repercussions are already apparent,” they stressed. “Prediction market platforms are offering contracts that resemble sportsbook bets, and in certain instances, contracts linked to war and armed conflicts. These products bypass state and tribal consumer safeguards, yield no public revenue, and undermine sovereign regulatory frameworks.”