Published on: April 24, 2026, 07:12h.
Updated on: April 24, 2026, 07:12h.
- Donald Trump recently criticized prediction markets.
- This follows allegations against a US special forces officer for insider trading.
- The Department of Justice claims the military personnel profited over $400K using insider insights on Polymarket.
Former President Donald Trump acknowledged that gambling may have spiraled out of control. Although he previously profited significantly from his casino operations in Atlantic City and Northwest Indiana, Trump expressed his disapproval of prediction markets that have risen in popularity during his second term.
In response to a question from a journalist regarding a Department of Justice case against a US special forces member accused of insider trading for profiting over $400,000 during the operation to apprehend Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Trump highlighted potential national security issues posed by prediction markets.
“The world, unfortunately, resembles a casino. Just look at the global landscape… These betting platforms are all around. I’ve never been particularly fond of it,” Trump remarked.
Federal authorities allege that Gannon Ken Van Dyke was involved in the January mission to capture Maduro. In the hours before the operation, Van Dyke, 38, reportedly executed trades on Polymarket, earning $32,500 in trades that resulted in a total gain of $404,000. His additional trading on Venezuelan-related event contracts earned him another $5,000.
Is Trump Reconsidering His Stance on Prediction Markets?
Prediction markets have surged in popularity, bolstered by platforms like Kalshi facilitating trades on sports outcomes. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the federal body responsible for overseeing designated contract markets and derivatives, has played a crucial role in amplifying the scope of prediction markets.
Michael Selig, the CFTC chair appointed by Trump, has emerged as a key proponent for prediction markets in Washington, DC. Since his confirmation in December 2025, Selig has advocated for modernized regulations to foster “lawful innovation.”
Selig has consistently argued that federal oversight from his agency supersedes state gaming laws, asserting that trading binary outcomes in sports could constitute illegal sports betting.
Until recently, the White House seemed to support the growth of prediction markets. Notably, Donald Trump Jr. has served as an advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket, while Truth Social, a social media platform created by the Trump family business, had announced intentions to launch its own prediction market called Truth Predict in October.
However, it appears Trump may be indicating a shift in his attitude toward prediction markets.
“Conceptually, I’m not a fan; nonetheless, it exists. I’m not comfortable with any of this. They operate numerous sites. They have predictive markets. It’s a turbulent world,” Trump stated.
The Role of Insiders in Prediction Markets
Some experts contend that insider traders are essential for prediction markets to function optimally. In the absence of insiders, key information may remain concealed, affecting the accuracy of trading prices.
“The main issue with prediction markets is determining when trading based on insider information crosses the line into insider trading,” said Yesha Yadav, a law professor at Vanderbilt Law School, in an interview with DL News, which focuses on decentralized finance. “Legal standards, obligations, and the interpretation of the law’s extent in this context remain ambiguous.”
When prediction markets were confined to traditional events they were designed for, such as trading on soybean futures, it was vital for farmers and others associated with agriculture to participate to accurately price this commodity.