PredictIt bettors say former VP Joe Biden is nearly a sure thing to win the 2020 Democratic Party race and square off against President Donald Trump in November’s general election.
At PredictIt, Biden’s shares of winning the Democratic nomination are at 87 cents, up from 47 cents a week ago. Bettors who purchase shares at that price will net 13 cents each should the 77-year-old eventually beat Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders – the lone remaining serious contender.
Sanders’ shares are at a distant nine cents. Former First Lady and 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, though not even in the race, is third at seven cents.
Trading activity on PredictIt has greatly intensified over the last few days. The online exchange reveals that the 2020 Democratic nomination market saw 1.3 million shares traded on Super Tuesday (March 3). An additional one million shares were exchanged on March 4.
By comparison, the average daily share volume has been around 50,000 trades per day. PredictIt does not publicly disclose exact figures.
All the momentum is with Biden following a true Super Tuesday in which he won 10 of the 14 primaries. And the establishment candidate is hoping for a potential knockout blow tomorrow.
Six states hold their Democratic primaries tomorrow: Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington. PredictIt bettors have Biden favored in each.
With 125 delegates up for grabs, Michigan is tomorrow’s biggest prize. Biden’s shares of winning the most delegates in the Great Lake State are at 95 cents, Sanders at eight cents.
In 2016, Sanders upset Democratic frontrunner Clinton in Michigan. Sanders’ team was hoping for Michigan’s support in 2020.
Michigan was once Bernie’s resurrection. Now it could be his burial,” a Politico headline reads this week.
“It’s getting hard not to see Biden winning here, and by a comfortable margin,” veteran Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond told Politico. “He’s got a huge base of support in the black community, and while maybe he doesn’t appeal to the non-college-educated whites like Trump does, he’s not toxic to them like Hillary was.”
“Bernie’s only real advantage is with young voters, and they don’t turn out anyway,” Hemond concluded.
Second Super Tuesday?
Along with Michigan, Biden is expected to expand his delegate lead over Sanders with wins in Idaho, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, and Washington. His shares in those states are respectively 67 cents, 99 cents, 97 cents, 78 cents, and 65 cents.
Should he run the table, the odds of a brokered Democratic convention would only extend further. The PredictIt market, “Will the Democrats have a brokered convention in 2020?” has “Yes” shares at just 10 cents.
To avoid a brokered convention, a candidate needs to obtain a simple majority of the delegates to secure the ticket. Prior to Super Tuesday, the brokered convention market had those same “Yes” shares as high as 60 cents.