Published on: June 30, 2026, 05:48h.
Updated on: June 30, 2026, 05:48h.
- Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta, reportedly had discussions with Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi, in 2025
- The talks involved a potential acquisition, but they did not progress significantly
- The company is working on its own prediction market platform
According to reports, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) explored the possibility of acquiring the renowned prediction market platform Kalshi, although discussions did not progress further.
NPR reports that in 2025, Mark Zuckerberg met with Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour to discuss a possible acquisition of the yes/no exchange. Sources familiar with the matter indicated that the talks remained informal and did not progress.
This news arrives shortly after Meta announced its aspirations to enter the prediction market sector. Zuckerberg has assigned a select group of employees to a project referred to internally as Arena. This would serve as a prediction market app, although real money would not be involved. Historically, Meta attempted a prediction market called Forecast in 2020, but this project was shelved in 2022.
Additionally, a Monday report from Bernstein analysts raised the possibility of Kalshi and Polymarket becoming either acquisition targets or potential acquirers, although no technology companies were mentioned as potential buyers.
Experts suggest that a prediction market without real capital stakes may be of limited interest, but the development of Meta’s Arena will reveal more about its traction in the market.
Conflicting Opinions on the Failure of Meta-Kalshi Talks
According to NPR, opinions differ regarding why the acquisition discussions between Mansour and Zuckerberg did not move forward.
Some sources contend that Mansour, who co-founded Kalshi with Luana Lopes Lara in 2018, was not interested in selling. Others mentioned that Zuckerberg had reservations about the numerous legal and regulatory challenges currently facing Kalshi.
One fact remains clear: Had Meta succeeded in acquiring Kalshi last year, it would have likely been at a significantly lower valuation than the company’s current estimated private market value of $22 billion. In mid-2025, Kalshi’s valuation was around $2 billion, which surged to $11 billion last December and eventually reached $22 billion in March.
Recent rumors indicate that Kalshi is seeking another funding round that could elevate its valuation to $40 billion. Mansour also confirmed that an initial public offering (IPO) is on the table, although he noted that this isn’t a certainty and, if it occurs, it won’t happen this year.
Meta’s Acquisition Strategy
Meta is known for leveraging acquisitions to expand its platforms and product offerings, contributing to the company’s growth. This strategy included the acquisitions of Instagram in 2012 and WhatsApp in 2014, among others.
Currently, it seems Zuckerberg prefers to develop an internal prediction market. However, if he becomes dissatisfied, Meta possesses sufficient financial resources to explore future acquisitions.
The company ended the first quarter with $81.59 billion in liquid assets, which is over six times higher than Polymarket’s estimated private market valuation of $15 billion. In simpler terms, Meta has the capacity to acquire any prediction market and pursue multiple acquisitions, yet it remains unclear if this strategy is being considered.