Published on: May 4, 2026, 05:45h.

Updated on: May 4, 2026, 05:45h.

• Over 80% of Polymarket users engaged in trades below $10,000 during Q1
• A minimal fraction engaged in trades above $100,000 in the same timeframe
• Expanding categories deemed essential for boosting user engagement

Operators in the prediction market sector are actively working to attract both professional investors and high-stakes bettors, yet currently, the industry thrives on participation from smaller retail traders.

A recent analysis by Bitget Wallet in collaboration with leading prediction market platform Polymarket has revealed that among 1.29 million active wallets, 82.3% of users traded less than $10,000 in Q1, indicating predominant retail-like behavior. In contrast, only 2.5% of wallets accounted for trades exceeding $100,000 during the initial quarter of the year.

This system is distinctly different from traditional financial markets such as derivatives or ETFs, where liquidity tends to be held by a limited number of larger participants,” states the report. “In contrast, growth in this sector is fueled by widespread small-scale participation, resembling consumer platforms more than institutional trading landscapes.”

This finding aligns with earlier statistics suggesting the average trading amount on Polymarket is approximately $89, with 80% of trades occurring below $500.

Indications of Increased Interest from Larger Traders

When comparing quarterly statistics, there has been growth in Polymarket’s user base among high-volume and “heavy” users, both in terms of numbers and share — indicating a diversification from retail traders. Furthermore, substantial growth in the “medium” user segment implies that retail participants continue to play a vital role in the growth of prediction markets.

It’s noteworthy that while some high-frequency users have slightly decreased their activity levels (in terms of active days), micro users have increased their engagement, spending more days on the platform as they grow accustomed to Polymarket.

“Analyzing user activity from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 reveals differing patterns across user tiers,” the Bitget/Polymarket report states. “Users with higher trading volumes experienced a slight dip in active days, while the lower-volume category, particularly micro users, showed improved activity, nearly doubling from 3.1 to 6.2 active days. This suggests while high-volume engagement remains steady, there is a notable rise in activity among smaller users.”

Cryptocurrency as a Gateway

Many prediction market platforms, particularly those focused on sports-related contracts, are witnessing new retail market participants enter through cryptocurrency derivatives.

In Q1, crypto activity represented 39.6% of engagement among micro users on Polymarket, but this behavior evolves as participants remain engaged with yes/no market dynamics.

“Cryptocurrency facilitates initial interactions, but long-term participation is driven by markets associated with recurring real-world events,” the study concludes. “As engagement deepens, users’ focus shifts towards real-world categories, with sports participation rising from 22.7% (micro users) to 29.2% (mid-tier users), while political interests maintain a stable rate of around 26-28% across segments.”