Prediction markets reach all-time high of $5B during World Cup as gamblers make multimillion-dollar moves

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Predictions for the 2026 World Cup have surpassed $5 billion in trading activity involving Polymarket and the US-regulated Kalshi, as reported by an analysis by Bloomberg News based on Dune Analytics data and company records. This surge in sports event contracts reveals significant betting volumes and real-time insights into high-stakes wagers.

The tournament has become a notable record for substantial gains and losses. One Polymarket account under the name “GRIMDRIP” achieved the highest profit recorded in relation to the World Cup to date, transforming a $6 million stake into $13.6 million through two bets on the matchup between the Czech Republic and South Africa.

Another account, labeled “mintblade,” successfully doubled a $7 million wager on Iran losing to New Zealand. Conversely, a separate player incurred a loss of nearly $9 million after betting on Belgium to triumph over Egypt.

It’s important to note that what we’re seeing only reflects a portion of the market. Polymarket allows users to create multiple accounts, and there’s no identity verification on its international platform, complicating the tracing of individual positions. Investors may also choose to hedge their bets via traditional sportsbooks or US-regulated prediction platforms where user activity remains concealed.

The 104-match World Cup is still in progress, with remaining group stage games and knockout rounds. Alongside the NBA Finals, the event has aided Kalshi in achieving its initial three-day streak of trading volumes exceeding $1 billion, as noted by CEO Tarek Mansour.

Prediction markets have opened avenues for gambling companies into US states such as California and Texas, where conventional sports betting is illegal.

DraftKings, which ventured into prediction markets in 2025, announced that the previous weekend marked its most significant for event contracts, particularly in anticipation of the Super Bowl in February. A social media update stated that their customer base grew by more than 200% compared to the previous weekend, while overall volume saw a 100% increase.

Both DraftKings and Kalshi have invested significantly in social media and television advertising campaigns, with DraftKings promoting its “sports app” as available nationwide while Kalshi collaborates with prominent athletes like Croatia’s Luka Modric and Argentina’s Lionel Messi during the tournament.

The World Cup trading landscape extends beyond match outcomes. Users can place wagers on awards like the Golden Boot, where Kylian Mbappe from France leads in betting preferences, as well as on whether US President Donald Trump will attend the final match, with 87% predicting he will.

Out of the 20 most profitable wagers on Polymarket’s non-US platform in the last week, only a pair were unrelated to the World Cup, based on data from the company and blockchain records.

An account known as “endlessFate” gained $5.6 million betting on Saudi Arabia’s game against Uruguay and another $2.7 million wagering that Colombia would defeat Uzbekistan, while also reporting a $1.2 million loss on a bet regarding a tie between the US and Paraguay last week.

While there have been notable successes, profits overall remain rare. Research conducted by Bender and a team from Citizens indicates that retail customers in prediction markets often experience long-term losses, typically performing worse than traditional sportsbook bettors.

“Current trends from the World Cup indicate that prediction markets are on a robust growth path,” commented Chris Grove, an analyst with Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.



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