President Donald Trump’s impeachment odds are shortening after the House of Representatives passed ground rules that will govern the probe into the commander-in-chief’s alleged wrongdoings.
The tally in the lower chamber was 232-196, with zero Republicans backing the rules package. Just two Democrats defected from their party – Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey and Rep. Collin Peterson of Minnesota.
With the groundwork laid to determine how Congress will begin the impeachment proceedings, shares on political betting exchange PredictIt are responding.
The market asking, “Will Donald Trump be impeached in his first term?” has “Yes” shares trading at 81 cents. At the beginning of the month, that price was 68 cents.
Paddy Power has impeachment odds in Trump’s first term at 1/3 – implied odds of 75 percent.
Trump and Ukraine
Democrats argue that the President abused the power of his office during a July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. A whistleblower submitted a complaint to Congress contending that Trump pressured Zelensky to investigate former VP Joe Biden and his son Hunter’s dealings in the Eastern European country – specifically, why Hunter was given a board seat on Ukrainian natural gas company Burisma Holdings and paid $50,000 per month.
Trump contends he did nothing wrong. From the unclassified transcript of the call, the President tells Zelensky, “There’s a lot of talk about Biden’s son, that Biden stopped the prosecution, and a lot of people want to find out about that, so whatever you can do with the attorney general would be great.”
Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution, so if you can look into. It sounds horrible to me,” Trump stated.
The president maintains he wasn’t using the power of his office to hurt his political rival and potential 2020 opponent.
“The Greatest Witch Hunt In American History!” Trump tweeted today. “READ THE TRANSCRIPT!”
The rules passed by the House will curb the president’s lawyers from being able to call witnesses. Republicans say the framework is skewed against Trump, while the Democrats say they mimic the same proceedings used during the impeachment of Bill Clinton.
The Associated Press says a vote to actually impeach Trump is likely several weeks away.
PredictIt’s market asking whether the President will be impeached before the end of 2019 has “Yes” shares at 40 cents. Political bettors also have a relatively strong faith that Trump will complete his first term (“Yes” shares at 70 cents).
“Will Trump be President at end of 2019?” has “Yes” at 90 cents.
As for who will challenge Trump in 2020, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is the frontrunner, her PredictIt shares presently at 37 cents. Biden trails at 23 cents, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg third at 16 cents, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 12 cents, with former First Lady Hillary Clinton rounding out the top five at nine cents.