Published on: June 11, 2026, at 12:06h.
Updated on: June 11, 2026, at 12:06h.
- The Coalition for Prediction Markets estimates around $34 billion was exchanged on illicit offshore prediction platforms.
- This figure is projected to increase fourfold by the year 2030.
- Polymarket constitutes the majority of this trading volume.
The Coalition for Prediction Markets (CPM), a collective of licensed U.S. prediction market operators, disclosed a report today suggesting that unregulated offshore platforms processed approximately $34 billion in event contract transactions from U.S. participants.
Created in collaboration with Rutgers University professor Harry Crane, a specialist in sports betting and statistics, the analysis reveals that between April 2025 and May 2026, U.S. bettors and traders transferred between $11 billion and $34 billion through unauthorized prediction platforms, with nearly two-thirds of the total volume linked to Polymarket.
The unregulated offshore prediction market sector could balloon to $133 billion by 2030—outpacing the total size of the American video gaming and recorded music industries combined,” stated CPM President Sean Patrick Maloney. “The reality is not whether these markets will exist, but whether they will thrive in the U.S. with clear federal oversight or shift to shadowy offshore platforms where troubling markets around mortality and conflict emerge.”
Polymarket, which claims to be the largest yes/no exchange globally in terms of trading volume, launched its iOS application in May, suggesting that a greater proportion of its U.S.-driven activities may soon be categorized as “legal.”
Decline in Offshore Prediction Market Volume
Although the CPM alerts that the volume on offshore prediction markets might increase significantly by 2030, it also recognizes that regulated markets are expanding at a quicker pace than their unlicensed competitors.
From 2024 to 2025, licensed prediction market operators expanded 4.8 times more rapidly than their unregulated counterparts. Furthermore, offshore trading volume has dropped to 54% of the total turnover from 84%, indicating that many U.S. prediction market traders prefer regulated platforms.
Bridging this gap is critical for the industry, as offshore sports betting remains appealing. In 2025, regulated sportsbooks in the U.S. collectively managed $168 billion, while offshore estimates suggest the figure was between $300 billion and $330 billion.
“Currently, about one in six dollars related to U.S. prediction market activity is flowing through offshore platforms that lack U.S. regulatory oversight. If trends persist, this amount could reach $133 billion annually by 2030,” notes the CPM report.
Motivations Behind Offshore Prediction Market Participation
The CPM report does not delve into the reasons why traders choose offshore prediction markets, but potential factors may include access to crypto-friendly, decentralized platforms like Polymarket, reduced trading friction, lower margin prerequisites, and broader access to leverage along with a more diverse array of trading options.
Besides Polymarket, other significant players in the offshore prediction market landscape include Limitless, Myriad, Opinion, and Predict.
Among regulated U.S. yes/no exchanges, Kalshi stands out as the clear market leader. Kalshi and Crypto.com are inaugural members of the CPM, joined by Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN), Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD), and Underdog.