Despite all the hype surrounding prediction markets and the expectation that they will take over the NFL handle from sportsbooks this season, traditional sportsbooks are projected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) projects that bettors will wager $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated venues, with $31.7 billion going through traditional sportsbooks and $8.4 billion through prediction markets. This represents a 79%/21% split, with handle analog used measure the comparison between the two. This growth is expected to increase the sports wagering industry by 8% year-over-year, surpassing the current 5% growth rate, which excludes the World Cup impact.

While prediction markets have attracted sharp bettors and whales, many recreational bettors still prefer sportsbooks over exchange options. Despite their popularity, prediction markets are seen as a smaller alternative for NFL wagering, but represent a new sector with less established roots.

Sportsbooks have an advantage in enticing customers with larger bonuses compared to prediction markets, who are limited in their ability to offer generous promotions due to trading dynamics. The competitive landscape is seeing sportsbooks spend big on bonuses to attract bettors, making it challenging for prediction markets to compete in the bonus offerings.

Despite this, prediction markets are investing heavily in digital marketing to increase their market share. As the season progresses, the forecast for prediction markets could improve due to their marketing efforts.