Published on: May 21, 2026, 08:04h.
Updated on: May 21, 2026, 08:04h.
- Kalshi remains a privately owned enterprise
- The Tema Durable Quality ETF enables access to the prediction market operator
- It is believed to be the inaugural ETF granting exposure to Kalshi
Kalshi stands as the leading prediction market in the United States, retaining its status as a privately held firm. However, investors can gain access through a lesser-known exchange-traded fund (ETF).
Recent updates reveal that the Tema Durable Quality ETF (CBOE: TOLL) allocates 8.4% of its assets to a special purpose vehicle (SPV) representing exposure to Kalshi. This allocation marks Kalshi as the major holding within the fund, making TOLL the first ETF to offer access to Kalshi.
“The Tema Durable Quality ETF invests in companies with robust market positions, elevated barriers to entry, and pronounced earnings visibility—many of which possess monopoly power within their sectors,” as articulated by the fund’s issuer.
Following its latest funding round, which secured $1 billion, Kalshi boasts a valuation of $22 billion. However, nearly all of its investors are institutional entities, venture capitalists, and similar stakeholders, limiting retail investor access. TOLL and a few other funds are attempting to bridge this gap.
TOLL’s Kalshi Exposure Could Be Significant
The news about the Tema ETF’s investment in Kalshi coincides with a growing trend of ETFs providing access to major private firms like Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Stripe.
This indicates that ETF issuers recognize the considerable interest among retail investors for access to top-tier unicorns, and they are working to satisfy that demand with capital inflows. The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NYSE: NASA), launched less than two months ago, has already reached $1.2 billion in assets due to its inclusion of SpaceX among its top holdings.
TOLL isn’t the only retail fund with a stake in Kalshi. The ARK Invest ARK Venture Fund, which has recently increased its investment in the prediction market operator, has been a long-standing investor in Kalshi. However, this fund operates as a closed-end fund, differing significantly from an ETF. Unlike closed-end funds, ETFs like TOLL trade constantly like stocks and offer enhanced liquidity, transparency, and tax advantages.
TOLL’s recognition as “the Kalshi ETF” may prove advantageous for a fund that has maintained a relatively low profile. Celebrating its third anniversary this month with $47.5 million in assets under management, the Kalshi investment could alter its trajectory. The ETF currently holds a total of 40 assets.
Tema’s Ongoing Interest in Prediction Markets
While indicators of a Kalshi initial public offering (IPO) remain absent, Tema acknowledges investor interest in prediction markets and is exploring avenues to fulfill this demand.
In conjunction with TOLL’s Kalshi addition, the issuer recently submitted plans for the Tema Trading & Prediction Markets ETF. Should this fund launch, it will offer exposure to public companies operating within prediction markets, alongside those providing trading services for yes/no exchanges.
For its part, TOLL is actively managed and incurs an annual expense ratio of 0.55%, which equates to $55 on a $10,000 investment.