Published on: October 20, 2025, 12:08 PM.
Updated on: October 20, 2025, 12:08 PM.
- Blue Jays favored at -130 ML for ALCS Game 7 tonight
- Current bets lean heavily towards the Blue Jays
- Mariners’ George Kirby faced challenges in Game 3
The Blue Jays stand as clear betting favorites for Game 7 of the American League Championship Series set for tonight (scheduled start at 8:10 PM EST) against the Seattle Mariners, according to today’s betting analysis.
Guerrero Jr. on Fire
The Blue Jays are receiving significant betting action—both in terms of the number of tickets and total money wagered. This morning at BetMGM (offering data from regulated U.S. online betting states and Ontario), the moneyline shows the Blue Jays at -130 and the Mariners at +110, with 62% of bets and 85% of handle favoring Toronto. The over/under stands at 7.5, with 69% of bets and 85% of handle leaning towards the Over, reflecting the series’ impressive offensive numbers. The current spread is Toronto -1.5, attracting a staggering 86% of bets and 97% of handle at +155, while Seattle is at +1.5 (-185).
Shane Bieber will take the mound for Toronto tonight. He showcased strong performance in Game 3 in Seattle, pitching six innings with only four hits and two runs allowed, alongside eight strikeouts, contributing to the Blue Jays’ 13-4 victory. This win shifted the series momentum towards the Blue Jays after the Mariners had established a 2-0 lead in the series.
Kirby Faced Difficulties Last Outing
Seattle’s George Kirby will start tonight—his last outing was challenging, where he permitted eight hits and eight runs over just four innings in Game 3.
“Both pitchers will likely have short leashes given the significance of a Game 7,” said Phill Gray, former head of trading operations at Sports Interaction and an industry betting consultant. “Kirby struggled in Game 3. I anticipate extensive action on him. Currently, consensus shows the Jays at -130, but some sharper sportsbooks have adjusted it down closer to the -120 mark. With a possible flurry of pitchers, the total of 7.5 might see balanced action; public sentiment favors the Over while sharper bettors might lean towards the Under.”
“In my view, even with the Jays’ offensive strength and home field benefit, Seattle has the superior bullpen, and I see Bieber and Kirby as nearly equivalent starters, hence the +110 for Seattle feels inflated. A balanced assessment would reflect actual power rankings more accurately.”
A Blue Jays Victory Would Benefit U.S. Sportsbooks
“I have mentioned this several times, but I expect a substantial influx of bets on the Jays tonight at Ontario sportsbooks—around 80-90% tickets and likely 60-70% money. Conversely, U.S. sportsbooks will likely experience an opposite trend; a Jays victory would be significantly advantageous for them.”
For fans in Canada, tonight’s game resurrects memories of Game 6 from the 2019 NBA Finals when the Kawhi Leonard-led Raptors clinched the championship against the Golden State Warriors, an event that captivated the nation.
The anticipation surrounding Game 7 tonight is palpable. These stakes are unprecedented. Plans are being adjusted nationwide so fans can tune in (in an interesting twist, local Monday night beer league hockey games have been canceled due to employees unable to attend work).
A victory tonight means the winner will advance to the World Series facing Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers, beginning this Friday. Should the Blue Jays triumph, the World Series will kick off at Rogers Centre in Toronto.
Springer’s Fitness a Concern
The last time the Blue Jays reached the World Series was in 1993 after defeating the Phillies. In contrast, the Mariners have yet to make their World Series debut, despite being in the league for just as long as the Blue Jays (since 1977).
Additional narratives to keep an eye on include:
The condition of George Springer, who is struggling after taking a 96 mph fastball to his knee during Game 5. His performance in Game 6, which the Blue Jays won 6-2, suggested he was in discomfort, visibly unable to put full weight on the leg, which affected his power. Springer has been the Blue Jays’ most valuable player this season. Following the game, he expressed his intention to play in Game 7. Is a 70% healthy Springer more effective than a fully fit Joey Loperfido?
Mariners Hold Bullpen Edge
Vlad Guerrero Jr. continues to dominate; he has hit six home runs in this postseason across ten games, which accounts for 25% of his entire regular season total. Healthy and in form, while Springer is dealing with an injury and Bo Bichette remains sidelined with a knee problem. Guerrero Jr. excelled against Kirby, going 3-for-3 in Game 3.
Seattle’s bullpen stands out as superior. If Bieber falters early and the Jays need to rely on their bullpen during the fourth to seventh innings, the Mariners could gain a tactical advantage.
After facing criticism for employing struggling reliever Brendon Little in the 8th inning of Game 5 in Seattle, when the Jays were up 2-1 and momentum was theirs, manager John Schneider opted for top closer Jeff Hoffman in both the eighth and ninth innings last night, and Hoffman delivered effectively.
“Game 7 promises to be thrilling. Although it’s still early, the current money is on the Blue Jays, just as it was during Game 6. Given the Blue Jays’ success against George Kirby in Game 3, I anticipate a surge of parlays featuring players like Vlad Guerrero Jr. and George Springer likely to excel in what could be a high-octane matchup,” remarked Eric Biggio, Lead Baseball Oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook.
“While we may need the Mariners tonight, a Blue Jays victory would benefit us significantly considering our futures positions, making a win for Toronto a favorable scenario for the sportsbooks.”