Published on: November 4, 2025, 06:12h. 

Updated on: November 4, 2025, 06:12h.

• Cowboys make a bold move by trading for Quinnen Williams from the Jets
• Seattle enhances their roster by acquiring WR Shaheed to support Darnold
• Parity remains a central theme in the NFL as the 2025 season reaches its midpoint

This morning, the Dallas Cowboys were quick to act on the NFL trade deadline, securing linebacker Logan Wilson, 29, from the Cincinnati Bengals. Wilson has consistently recorded over 100 tackles each season from 2021 to 2024 in exchange for a seventh-round draft pick. The NFL trade deadline was set for 4 p.m. EST today.

Wilson is expected to shore up the weaknesses in the Cowboys’ defense, although he may not fully replace Micah Parsons. After a disappointing 27-17 loss at home against the Arizona Cardinals, the Cowboys now hold a 3-5-1 record, placing them second in the NFC East and outside playoff contention as the season approaches its halfway mark.

Later in the day, Dallas orchestrated a significant acquisition by securing three-time Pro Bowl DT Quinnen Williams from the Jets. In the trade, the Cowboys sent a 2026 second-round pick, a 2027 first-round pick, and DT Mazi Smith to New York, significantly enhancing their defensive line.

Darnold Gains a New Target

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold, currently +2000 for league MVP at DraftKings, received a boost with the addition of WR Rashid Shaheed, who was traded from the Saints in exchange for fourth- and fifth-round picks in the 2026 draft. Shaheed, who is a free agent this offseason, has shown promise, registering 44 receptions for 499 yards and two touchdowns this season.

Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders traded WR Jakobi Meyers to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a fourth- and sixth-round draft pick. The Jaguars sit at 5-3 in the AFC South, vying for the division lead against the Indianapolis Colts. The Buffalo Bills were also in the running for Meyers.

The implications of these trades on betting trends moving forward is particularly intriguing.

Colts Face Setbacks

This season, underdogs have recorded a 40-94-1 straight-up record, but have fared better against the spread at 59-74-2. Parity has defined this season, with no clear frontrunners emerging. 

“The early morning games showcased underdogs putting up a fight, which was a refreshing change,” remarked Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, following Sunday’s outcomes. “Four underdogs winning outright and a few lower-scoring games shifted the results in favor of the book early on. However, the later marquee matchup between the Bills and Chiefs had a massive handle difference compared to the other games. Ultimately, the afternoon results favored the customers with two favorites covering while the Bills—widely backed—won on the money line.”

The Colts, sporting a 7-1 record prior to their game on Sunday, struggled considerably, committing six turnovers against the Steelers. Quarterback Daniel Jones threw three interceptions, whereas the Colts had only four turnovers in their previous eight games. Consequently, Jones’ MVP odds dipped to +2500.

Having primarily defeated weaker opponents, the Colts are about to face a true test of their mettle. They made a significant move today by acquiring star cornerback Sauce Gardner from the Jets, trading away their first-round picks for 2026 and 2027. Gardner had recently signed a substantial four-year contract extension worth $120.4 million this past offseason.

After a promising 4-1 start, the Lions faced an upset loss of 27-24 against the Vikings on Sunday.

Bills Reclaim Super Bowl Contender Status

And the Packers—who showcased an impressive performance against the Steelers on October 26—stumbled at home on Sunday against the Panthers, losing 16-13. The Panthers were -1200 on ESPN BET ML prior to the match. Before a late touchdown by Josh Jacobs, the Packers’ offense managed only two field goals after entering the Panthers’ 35-yard line on five of their first six drives.

A glance at the ESPN Power Index this morning positions the Bills at the forefront with an impressive 11.9 projected wins, closely followed by the Colts at 11.6. Despite their loss to the Bills, the Chiefs maintain the highest probability of winning the Super Bowl at 10.9%, with the Colts at 10.7% and the Bills at 10.1%.

Public vs. Sharp Money Dynamics

How does the public betting behavior contrast with sharp money on underdogs versus favorites as we reach the midway point of the season?

“While these tendencies can be situational, the public often focuses on standings and recent outcomes,” noted Christian Cipollini, Trading Manager at BetMGM. “For instance, following the Panthers’ victory over the Packers, their current 5-4 record might attract more public support this week. Essentially, the public tends to back well-liked favorites, whereas sharp bettors usually seek value in underdogs. However, this can change week to week.”