Published on: November 10, 2025, 01:35h.
Updated on: November 10, 2025, 01:35h.
The enthusiasm of casual bettors for specific NFL teams shifts throughout the season, influenced by the progression of narratives and the flux of favorites and underdogs.
This morning’s look at ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index showcases a pertinent example following Week 10’s matches.
Last week, after an impressive victory against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills held the top spot in projected wins with 11.9, closely followed by the Indianapolis Colts at 11.6.
However, following a disappointing performance in rainy Miami, where they fell 30-13 to the now 3-7 Dolphins, the Bills find themselves two games behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East. Additionally, the Patriots currently possess the tie-breaker advantage after their upset victory over the Bills in Week 5.
Bills Drop in Super Bowl Expectations
The Index now adjusts the Bills’ projection to 11.0 wins, placing them behind the Rams (12.1), Patriots (11.9), Colts (11.9), Denver Broncos (11.6), Seattle Seahawks (11.5), and the Philadelphia Eagles (11.3).
Bettors who wagered on the Bills for the Super Bowl must be considering early cash-out options. The team’s performance yesterday was dismal, marked by three turnovers, including a crucial interception by Josh Allen at the Miami five-yard line when the Bills were trailing 16-0 late in the third quarter. This proved to be pivotal. Allen also lost custody of the ball during an ill-fated play.
Have the Bills missed their chance at the Super Bowl? With the Patriots back in the swing of things after defeating the Buccaneers 28-23, improving to 8-2, concerns about the Bills’ poorly performing run defense are mounting. They will face the Patriots again in Foxborough on December 14, while New England also has two upcoming matches against the struggling Jets and one against the 2-8 Giants.
Ravens Become More Compelling with Jackson’s Return
What did sportsbooks observe yesterday?
“The game in Berlin between the Falcons and the Colts certainly delivered some excitement,” remarked Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook. “Opening at -5.5 and closing at -6.5, there was a narrow margin where line shoppers could have comfortably chosen either side of the outcome.
“Although the Colts were the superior team, they squandered multiple fourth-down chances, leaving their backers at -6.5 to feel the sting of missed opportunities. Such scenarios illustrate the importance of timing in betting, and the frustration when the favored side fails to pay off.”
Top Matches for Bettors?
“In the early games, the Ravens have become a fan favorite with Lamar regaining his form. Their positive energy is evident, and it’s no wonder they provided a significant win for bettors. Meanwhile, the Texans’ comeback was one of those classic ‘bad beat’ moments for the sportsbooks. A defensive walk-off that impacts the spread is always a punch to the gut, especially when it changes both pre-game and in-play markets.”
Games in the AFC East, aside from the Bills, proved profitable for the sportsbooks yesterday, with wins from the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots against popular picks.
Which games stood out for bettors?
Giants Part Ways with Daboll
“The Texans’ last-minute defensive touchdown was one of those rare, game-altering moments,” Feazel noted. “What seemed like a solid outcome for the sportsbooks turned quickly into a significant loss for public bettors, especially painful given the impact on both pre-game and in-play markets.”
The headline today revolves around Coach Brian Daboll being dismissed by the Giants. Despite having a hopeful quarterback in Jaxson Dart, who suffered a concussion during the game, the Giants fell to the Bears 24-20, bringing their record to 2-8 (with a dismal 0-6 away record).
Notable fluctuations in Super Bowl odds emerged from yesterday’s games, with the Bills dropping from +590 to +850, the Seahawks falling from +1100 to +900, and the Ravens rising from +1900 to +1400; the Patriots also shifted from +2500 to +1500 at Caesars Sportsbook.
This evening’s Monday Night Football matchup is highly anticipated, featuring the Packers hosting the Eagles. The Packers are favored at -118 over the Eagles at -102 (with the Eagles receiving 81% of the bets and 60% of the handle at BetMGM). The Packers are looking to bounce back from a surprising 16-13 defeat to the underdog Panthers in Week 9.