With the NFL season upon us, now is a great time to share some best practices to help increase your odds of walking away a winner this season.
Lets look at some of the fundamentals of respected bettors and how they place their sharp money, so you learn from the experts.
One piece of advice is the order of operations. Many bettors will already have a team or a result in mind and then look for the stats that back up their propositions.
That is in fact the opposite order of operations. A much smarter approach is to start with the numbers and see where they lead you in a cold and calculating way.
Take Detroit versus Arizona in week one as an example.
Kyler Murray has been generating tons of hype for months and now he will finally be unleashed in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Arizona is also taking on a Detroit team that has been flying under the radar and many people expect them to finish last in the NFC Central this season.
That kind of logic will have many people jumping on the Cardinals this weekend, but what they’ll disregard from a numbers point of view is that the Lions strengths match up very well with the Cardinals weaknesses.
Detroit has become a power running team now that Matt Patricia is in charge. They finally figured out how to run the ball last year and that should only get better this year. Meanwhile Arizona is expected to struggle in a major way at stopping the run.
The Lions defense is also built around stopping the big play from the quarterback. That means Murray is going to have to be adapt at taking what the Lions give him and that kind of skill is usually the sort that comes with experience.
Those data points back up a Lions pick.
Another factor to consider is your bankroll. What that refers to is the amount of money you’re willing to lose over the course of a season. From there, you need to create a system where you know what your unit or your dollar amount bet is. Your unit -the amount you bet on each game- should be 1% of your bankroll. This way you avoid financial strain and putting excess pressure on yourself. It keeps you from betting from a place of strength instead of weakness.
Ideally you want to be clear, look at the data and bet where you can find an edge.
As a result, once you’ve keyed in on the teams you like, it’s really important to check out multiple sportsbooks for the odds that are most in your favor.
And last but not least, is to avoid the get rich quick mindset. Keep a level head, manage your bankroll, have the long view and grind. Make as many positive expected value choices as you can over the long term and you’ll be happy that you did.